Viendo archivo del martes, 21 junio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 172 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jun 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of a
long-duration C7 X-ray event which began at 0122Z, reached maximum
at 0325Z and ended at 0427Z. The X-ray event was associated with a
Sf flare from Region 1236 (N17W21) as well as the eruption of a 17
degree filament near N39W01. Also associated with this activity was
a symmetric halo CME which first entered the SOHO C2 coronagraph
field of view at 0316Z and had an estimated plane of sky speed of
about 640 km/s. Region 1236 was generally unchanged during the past
24 hours and is the dominant spot group on the disk. The other
spotted regions were very small and appeared to be decaying.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a
solar sector boundary crossing between 1200 and 1500Z (positive to
negative).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next 36-42 hours. An increase is
expected beginning sometime late on day 2 (23 June) and continuing
through day 3 (24 June). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be
mostly active during this time period, with a chance for minor storm
periods at mid-latitudes, and minor to major storm periods at high
latitudes. The increase in activity is forecast due to expected
combined effects from todays halo CME event and a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jun a 24 Jun
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jun 095 Previsto 22 Jun-24 Jun 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 21 Jun 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jun 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jun 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 005/005-018/018-025/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jun a 24 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 25% | 30% |
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