Viendo archivo del lunes, 20 junio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 171 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jun 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1234 (S16W87)
produced two B-class flares as it approached the west limb. Region
1236 (N17W07) showed little change during the period and remained an
Esi group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration (due to mixed
polarities in the leader portion of the group). New Regions 1239
(N18E13) and 1240 (S17E42) were numbered. Both were small,
magnetically simple spot groups.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low through the period (21 - 23 June).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (21 June) due
to weak coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 2 (22 June). An increase
to quiet to unsettled levels is expected for day 3 (23 June) with a
chance for active levels as another CH HSS begins to disturb the
field.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jun a 23 Jun
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jun 096 Previsto 21 Jun-23 Jun 095/095/100 Media de 90 Días 20 Jun 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jun 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jun 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 007/008-005/005-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jun a 23 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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