Viendo archivo del jueves, 9 junio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 160 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jun 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S20W95) produced a
C4/Sf flare at 09/0348Z as it neared the west limb. New Region 1234
(S16E59) produced a C1 flare at 09/1028Z. Region 1234 was classified
as a Bxo group with a simple bipolar structure. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to very low
through the period (10 - 12 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
forecast to increase to unsettled to active levels early on day 1
(10 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of
the halo-CME observed on 07 June. Activity is expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled levels during 11 - 12 June. There will be a
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous
orbit on day 1 due to the expected CME arrival.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jun a 12 Jun
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 50% | 25% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jun 088 Previsto 10 Jun-12 Jun 088/088/088 Media de 90 Días 09 Jun 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jun 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 018/025-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jun a 12 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 01% |
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