Viendo archivo del viernes, 10 junio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 161 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Jun 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray flare occurred at
10/1751Z and appeared to originate from old Region 1226 (S22,
L=037), which crossed the west limb yesterday. Region 1234 (S16E43)
produced an isolated B-class flare and remained a simply-structured
Bxo-type group. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (11 - 13 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels during the period.
Active levels occurred at Boulder during 09/2100 - 10/0000Z
associated with increased solar wind speeds and IMF Bt, coupled with
a period of southward IMF Bz. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred
after 10/0000Z. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) occurred at
10/0855Z (15 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was in response
to the arrival of the halo-coronal mass ejection observed on 07
June. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (11 -
13 June) with a chance for brief active levels during 11 - 12 June
due to a coronal hole high-speed stream, expected to commence on 11
June.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Jun a 13 Jun
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Jun 087 Previsto 11 Jun-13 Jun 086/086/086 Media de 90 Días 10 Jun 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Jun 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Jun 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Jun a 13 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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