Viendo archivo del miércoles, 6 julio 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jul 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 187 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jul 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1243
(N15W46) produced a B2 flare at 05/2156Z. An approximately 23 degree
long filament centered near N25W60 was first observed lifting toward
the NW at approximately 06/1052Z. An associated CME was observed at
06/1048Z directed toward the NW on SOHO LASCO imagery. SOHO LASCO C2
showed an estimated plane of sky speed of about 573 km/s. The CME
did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 1243 continued to show
an increase in spots and area and was classified as a Dai group with
a Beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (07-09 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period between 06/0600-0900Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels, late on day one (07 July) and day two (08 July). The
increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream and a possible CME passage from the partial-halo CME observed
on LASCO C3 at 03/0142. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on
day three (09 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Jul 085 Previsto 07 Jul-09 Jul 084/082/084 Media de 90 Días 06 Jul 100
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jul 008/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 008/008-010/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jul a 09 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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