Viendo archivo del sábado, 28 mayo 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 May 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 148 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 May 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S19E65) produced the majority of the flare activity, including a C8 x-ray event at 28/0331Z. The region grew rapidly in size, spot count and complexity over the past 24 hours, ending the period as an Eai spot group with Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1224 (N20W28), a Dso class group with Beta magnetic characteristics, also grew over the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to remain low for the next three days (29-31 May) with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm levels over the past 24 hours. The ACE spacecraft observed the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward (negative) at approximately 25/0530Z. The field generally ranged from -5 nT to -12 nT between 27/2130Z to 28/1230Z. The prolonged southward Bz resulted in substantial geomagnetic disruption and was attributed to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream possibly coupled with effects from the 25 May filament eruption. Solar wind speed rose above 500 km/s after 28/0530Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm periods, on days 1 and 2 (29-30 May), becoming predominantly unsettled on day 3 (31 May). This activity is in response to the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 May a 31 May
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 May 101
  Previsto   29 May-31 May  100/100/100
  Media de 90 Días        28 May 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 May  007/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 May  032/035
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  020/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 May a 31 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor20%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor25%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%05%

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