Viendo archivo del sábado, 30 abril 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Apr 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 120 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Apr 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1195 (S16W80) and 1199
(N20W74) produced a few C-class flares during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a chance for a M-class flare on days 1 and 2 (1-2 May), before
Regions 1195 and 1199 rotate off the disk. Low activity is expected
on day 3 (3 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm conditions
as the result of coronal hole (CH) high-speed stream (HSS) effects.
The solar wind speeds at the ACE spacecraft ranged between 640 km/s
and 700 km/s during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to active conditions with isolated
minor storms possible for days 1 and 2 (1-2 May). Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day 3 (3 May), when CH HSS
effects begin to subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 May a 03 May
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Apr 110 Previsto 01 May-03 May 110/110/105 Media de 90 Días 30 Apr 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Apr 008/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 015/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 015/018-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 May a 03 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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