Viendo archivo del viernes, 29 abril 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Apr 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 119 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Apr 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1203 (N18E64) produced the largest event of the
period, a C3 flare at 29/0026Z. Region 1200 (S17E05) regained spots
and has developed into a beta group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next two days (30 April - 01 May). Very low to
low levels are expected on day three (02 May) as Regions 1199
(N18W62) and 1195 (S15W65) rotate off the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. However, late in the summary period, unsettled
conditions were observed. Measurements by the ACE spacecraft showed
an increase in solar wind speed from around 350 - 450 km/s. The total
interplanetary magnetic field increased from 5 - 18 nT over the
period with the negative component peaking at -10 nT. These changes
in solar wind indicate the arrival of a coronal hole high-speed
stream (CH HSS).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated periods at minor
storm levels for the next three days (30 April - 02 May) as a CH HSS
becomes geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Apr a 02 May
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Apr 110 Previsto 30 Apr-02 May 110/105/105 Media de 90 Días 29 Apr 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Apr 001/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Apr 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 010/010-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Apr a 02 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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