Viendo archivo del martes, 19 octubre 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Oct 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 292 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Oct 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1112 (S20W70)
produced a few C-class events during the period, the largest a
C1.3/Sf at 19/0651Z. Regions 1113 (N17W03) and 1115 (S29E13) each
produced moderate-level B-class activity. Two new regions were
numbered during the period. Region 1117 (N25E74) rotated onto the
disk as a large H-type spot group while Region 1118 (N16E61) formed
on the disk as a simple uni-polar spot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels with a chance for C-class activity all
three days of the period (20 - 22 October). A slight chance for
M-class activity exists from Region 1112 on 20 October as the region
approaches the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels as a weak
coronal hole wind stream moved into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active
periods, on days one and two (20 - 21 October) due to continued
coronal hole high-speed stream effects. By day three (22 October),
mostly quiet levels are expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Oct a 22 Oct
| Clase M | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Oct 087 Previsto 20 Oct-22 Oct 090/090/090 Media de 90 Días 19 Oct 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Oct 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Oct a 22 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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