Viendo archivo del lunes, 2 agosto 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Aug 02 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 214 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Aug 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Two B-class flares were
observed, one of which was produced by Region 1092 (N16E10). Region
1092 showed a minor increase in spot count during the period and was
classified as a Cho group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 August)
due to the arrival of the first of two CMEs observed on 01 August
(this CME was associated with the long-duration C3/Sf flare at
01/0826Z). Activity is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels with a slight chance for major storm on days 2 - 3 (04 - 05
August) due to the arrival of the second slower CME observed on 01
August (associated with a large filament disappearance).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Aug a 05 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Aug 079 Previsto 03 Aug-05 Aug 080/082/084 Media de 90 Días 02 Aug 075
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Aug 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 012/012-018/022-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Aug a 05 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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