Viendo archivo del martes, 3 agosto 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Aug 03 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 215 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Aug 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1092 (N15W04)
produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1092 remained a stable
Cho-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new regions
were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1092.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels until late in
the period. Activity increased to unsettled to active levels
following a sudden geomagnetic impulse (SI) at 03/1741Z (21 nT, as
measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was preceded by
the arrival of an interplanetary shock at the ACE spacecraft at
03/1656Z. Both effects were due to the arrival of a CME associated
with the long-duration C3 flare on 01 August. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (04
August) as the current CME passage continues. Activity is forecast
to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on day 2 (05 August) due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 01 August (associated with a large filament
disappearance). Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to
active levels on day 3 (06 August) as CME effects subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Aug a 06 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Aug 081 Previsto 04 Aug-06 Aug 082/084/084 Media de 90 Días 03 Aug 075
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Aug 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 020/025-030/035-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Aug a 06 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 40% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 45% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 35% | 01% |
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