Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 agosto 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Aug 01 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 213 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Aug 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1092
(N13E21) produced a long-duration C3/Sf flare at 01/0826Z. The flare
was associated with a Type IV radio sweep, an 890 sfu Tenflare, and
an Earth-directed full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). A
disappearing filament (DSF) occurred during 01/0750 - 0811Z,
centered near N37W32 and time coincident with the C3 flare. The DSF
was associated with an Earth-directed partial-halo CME. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1092.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during most of day 1 (02 August). An
increase to unsettled to active levels is expected late on day 1 due
to the arrival of the full-halo CME observed on 01 August. Activity
is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm levels on day 2 (03 August) as CME effects persist.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a
chance for active levels on day 3 (04 August) as CME effects
subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Aug 080 Previsto 02 Aug-04 Aug 080/080/082 Media de 90 Días 01 Aug 075
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Jul 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Aug 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 007/008-018/018-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 10% |
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