Viendo archivo del sábado, 11 octubre 2008
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2008 Oct 11 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 285 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Oct 2008IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A new-cycle sunspot was
numbered today as Region 1005 (N26E42).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm conditions,
Activity was due to a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed
stream. Solar wind speeds increased from around 330 to 530 km/s
during the period. The Bz was anywhere from -13 nT to -14 nT while
the Bt reached fluctuations of +14 nT to +15 nT for the period
between 11/0600Z - 11/1800Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
storm levels at high latitudes for 12 October. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 13 October. Predominately quiet levels
are expected to return for 14 October as the coronal hole effects
subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Oct a 14 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Oct 071 Previsto 12 Oct-14 Oct 071/072/072 Media de 90 Días 11 Oct 067
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Oct 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Oct 020/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 015/020-005/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Oct a 14 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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