Viendo archivo del sábado, 19 noviembre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Nov 19 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 323 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Nov 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 822 (S08W12) produced
two C-class flares. A C5.8/Sf flare occurred at 18/2357Z, and a
C1.5 S/f flare occurred at 19/2019Z. The region continues to decay
slowly. New Region 823 (S18W37) was numbered today. This emerging
flux region developed rapidly in the last 24 hours. CME activity
observed today on LASCO imagery appears to have originated from
back-sided events.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 822 may still be capable of producing an M-class
flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with periods of active
conditions occurring after 19/1500Z due to a solar sector boundary
crossing.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible on 21 November due to a solar sector boundary
crossing. There is a slight chance that weak transient effects,
resulting from the disappearing solar filament which occurred late
on 16 November, may enhance activity on 21 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Nov a 22 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Nov 102 Previsto 20 Nov-22 Nov 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 19 Nov 085
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Nov 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 007/008-012/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Nov a 22 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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