Viendo archivo del martes, 4 octubre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Oct 04 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 277 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Oct 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Old active
Region 808 (S10, L=232) is rotating into view on the southeast limb
and still appears relatively complex. Several B-class flares were
observed including a long-duration B7 flare at 04/0622Z. This
long-duration event was associated with a prominence eruption and
CME on the southeast limb. A large loop structure was also observed
near this location on EIT imagery. Newly numbered Region 813
(S06E30) emerged this period as a moderately complex and compact
beta-gamma group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Old Region 808, which is currently rotating onto the visible disk,
may produce C-class activity. Newly numbered Region 813 also has
C-class flare potential. There is a slight chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on 05 October. Isolated unsettled to active
periods are possible on 06 and 07 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Oct a 07 Oct
| Clase M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Oct 083 Previsto 05 Oct-07 Oct 090/095/095 Media de 90 Días 04 Oct 090
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 005/005-008/008-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Oct a 07 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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