Viendo archivo del lunes, 31 octubre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Oct 31 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 304 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Oct 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity continued at very low levels. A B8 flare
was observed at 31/1643Z from near S03 on the east limb. This area
of bright emission on the southeast limb is likely the return of old
Region 814 (S08, L=228). A new bipolar sunspot group was numbered
today as Region 819 (S09E26). This spot group emerged in close
proximity to Region 818 (S08E32), which is also a small beta group
in a slow growth phase.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from the tightly
grouped Regions 818 and 819. A C-class flare is also possible from
old active Region 814, which is rotating into view on the southeast
limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The most disturbed
conditions were associated with a period of sustained southward IMF
Bz that began at around 31/0900Z and persisted through the remainder
of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into
a geoeffective position on 03 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Nov a 03 Nov
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Oct 078 Previsto 01 Nov-03 Nov 080/080/080 Media de 90 Días 31 Oct 085
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Oct 003/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 008/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Nov a 03 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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