Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 agosto 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Aug 15 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 227 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Aug 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 797
(S13E03) underwent some decay in sunspot area while strengthening
magnetically. Gamma characteristics have become visible in the
southern portion of the region. Region 798 (S08E39) remains a
simple alpha group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Region 798 has the potential to produce C-class
flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to minor storm levels.
Isolated major storming may be possible on 16 and 17 August due to a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. A decrease to
predominantly unsettled conditions is expected on 18 August as the
coronal hole wanes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Aug 076 Previsto 16 Aug-18 Aug 075/080/080 Media de 90 Días 15 Aug 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 016/025-016/025-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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