Viendo archivo del martes, 19 julio 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jul 19 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 200 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jul 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remains spotless. No significant activity was observed
during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated active levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux has steadily decreased from slightly
elevated levels at the beginning of the period, ending the period at
background levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major
to severe storming conditions are possible on 20 July due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. A decrease to
predominantly active conditions can be expected on 21 July, followed
by unsettled levels on 22 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jul a 22 Jul
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Jul 071 Previsto 20 Jul-22 Jul 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 19 Jul 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jul 019/034 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Jul 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 020/030-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jul a 22 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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