Viendo archivo del martes, 16 agosto 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Aug 16 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Aug 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 797 (S14W10)
continues to show decay in sunspot area while maintaining a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 797.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active due to the
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into
geoeffective position during the latter half of 15 August.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on 17 August.
Activity should gradually decline on 18 August and should be quiet
to unsettled by 19 August as the coronal hole high speed stream
moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Aug 076 Previsto 17 Aug-19 Aug 075/075/080 Media de 90 Días 16 Aug 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 012/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 012/020-010/015-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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