Viendo archivo del viernes, 15 octubre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Oct 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 289 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Oct 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 682 (S14E37), the
only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced several B-class
flares. This region showed little change over the past 24 hours. It
currently exhibits minor magnetic complexity with approximately 250
millionths of white light area coverage. No other significant
activity or changes were noted.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 682 has potential for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed began
the period near 540 km/s, but gradually declined to 450 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 18 Oct due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Oct 089 Previsto 16 Oct-18 Oct 090/085/085 Media de 90 Días 15 Oct 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Oct 012/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 008/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 005/010-008/010-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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