Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 octubre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Oct 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 290 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Oct 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
were observed from Region 682 (S14E24). No significant changes were
observed in this region, which continues to exhibit some minor
magnetic complexity. B-class flares were also observed from an
active region rotating into view on the east limb near S04. No other
activity or changes were noted.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 682 may produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with an isolated
unsettled period between 16/0000 - 0300Z. Very stable solar wind
conditions existed through the latter half of the period with solar
wind speed near 350 km/s and the IMF Bz near zero. The greater than
2 Mev electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has been at high levels
since midday on 14 October.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible
on 18 and 19 October due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Oct 092 Previsto 17 Oct-19 Oct 095/095/090 Media de 90 Días 16 Oct 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 006/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/008-008/012-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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