Viendo archivo del sábado, 18 septiembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Sep 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 262 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Sep 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 673 (S13E35) produced
the only C-class activity of the period, a single C1 flare at
18/1609Z. Occasional B-class flares were also observed from this
region and from Region 672 (N06W45). Region 673 is a moderate size
beta group that exhibited little change this period. Region 672 has
decayed considerably over the past 48 hours. No other significant
activity or changes were noted.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Isolated C-class activity is possible from Regions 672
and 673.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with a
period of major storming between 18/0000 - 0300Z. The storm levels
were in response to a prolonged period of southward IMF Bz and solar
wind speeds near 500 km/s. The geomagnetic field was predominantly
quiet to end the period as the solar wind speed declined to 420 km/s
and IMF Bz was sustained north. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Sep a 21 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Sep 103 Previsto 19 Sep-21 Sep 100/095/095 Media de 90 Días 18 Sep 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Sep 015/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 010/012-008/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Sep a 21 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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