Viendo archivo del viernes, 30 julio 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 212 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jul 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Old
Region 652 (N08, L=348) has rotated beyond the western solar limb
although it was the source for the C-class flare activity seen
earlier in the period. Region 654 (N08W15) went unchanged in spot
area and magnetic complexity. Several lesser B-class flares were
produced from this region today. Region 655 (S09E71) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 654 is capable of producing C-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A shock
passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 30/2030Z
and is believed to be in response to the very long duration C4 x-ray
flare that occurred at 28/0609Z. A sudden impulse of 25 nT occurred
at the Boulder magnetometer at 30/2115Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels again
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A transient passage
may occur late on 31 July into 1 Aug allowing for isolated active
conditions resulting from the long duration C2 x-ray flare that
occurred on 29 July. Quiet levels are expected to return late on 1
Aug.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Jul a 02 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Jul 089 Previsto 31 Jul-02 Aug 090/090/090 Media de 90 Días 30 Jul 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jul 006/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Jul 006/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 012/015-010/015-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Jul a 02 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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