Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 julio 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 211 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Jul 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region
652 (N08W89) produced the largest event of the period, an M2 x-ray
flare that occurred at 29/0006Z. Although, the most significant
event during the period was a long duration C2 x-ray flare. There
was an associated partial halo CME with this flare that may result
in an glancing blow from the anticipated transient passage. The
beta-gamma magnetic structure remains unchanged as Region 652
rotates beyond the solar west limb. Region 654 (N08W02) was
quiescent today and is the only other spotted active region on the
visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to moderate levels. Region 652 may yet produce another
M-class flare before rotating completely beyond the solar west limb
through day one (30 July). Expect activity to decrease to very low
to low levels by 31 July.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels throughout the
period. The elevated conditions are expected due to the anticipated
shock passages from the CME activity seen on LASCO imagery from the
long duration C4 that occurred early yesterday and the C2 that
occurred today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Jul a 01 Aug
| Clase M | 40% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Jul 100 Previsto 30 Jul-01 Aug 095/090/085 Media de 90 Días 29 Jul 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Jul 011/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Jul 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 020/030-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Jul a 01 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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