Viendo archivo del lunes, 12 julio 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 194 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jul 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred
at 12/0808 UTC from the east limb near SE08. New Region 649 (S10E76)
rotated into view near the site of the M-flare as a small C-type
sunspot group. More sunspots are likely to rotate into view within
the next 24 hours. New Region 648 (N14W08) emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Additional C-class flares are expected and another
M-class flare is possible. The source of this activity is expected
to be the active region area at the southeast limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The high-speed
stream conditions that were apparent in the ACE solar wind data
yesterday appear to be easing.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jul a 15 Jul
| Clase M | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Jul 125 Previsto 13 Jul-15 Jul 130/135/140 Media de 90 Días 12 Jul 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jul 013/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Jul 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jul a 15 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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