Viendo archivo del martes, 15 junio 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jun 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 167 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 634 (N11E48) produced a
C1/1f flare at 15/2001Z. Region 634 is a moderately complex sunspot
group covering 370 millionths of white light area. Region 635
(S10E65) has rotated into view and also exhibits a moderately
complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration with almost 400 millionths
of white light area coverage. These regions were the likely source
for a series of strong CMEs that originated from behind the west
limb during the first week of June. A CME observed off the southwest
limb at approximately 0800Z, originated from behind the west limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class activity is possible from Regions 634
and 635.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Periods of southward IMF Bz associated with weak transient flow
created the most disturbed periods. Solar wind speed gradually
increased during the period associated with a southern coronal hole
rotating into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated high-latitude minor storm
periods are possible through 17 June.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jun 109 Previsto 16 Jun-18 Jun 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 15 Jun 102
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/015-015/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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