Viendo archivo del martes, 13 julio 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 195 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jul 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 646 (N13W60) emerged
rapidly during the past 24 hours and produced three major flares: an
M6 at 0017 UTC, an M5/1n at 0848 UTC, and an M6/1b at 1932 UTC.
CME's were observed in association with the first and second major
flares which were technically classified as halo events, although
the majority of the mass erupted off the northwest limb. Region 646
grew from 70 to 220 millionths and has some magnetic complexity
along a northeast-to-southwest inversion line. Region 649 (S10E64)
is the largest group on the disk with an area of 350 millionths. The
region produced numerous C-class events as well as two M-class
flares: an M2 at 1208 UTC and an M1/Sf at 1838 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate, with Region 646 and 649 the most likely sources for
activity. There is a fair chance for continued major flare activity,
particularly out of Region 646.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind data countinue to show that the earth is
under the influence of a high-speed stream driven by a coronal hole
(with typical speeds today between 500 to 600 km/s). There was an
enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons, which began around 0100
UTC and reached maximum values of about 1 PFU.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. Unsettled
with some active periods at high latitudes is expected on the third
day as a possible response to a glancing blow from one or the other
of today's CMEs.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jul a 16 Jul
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jul 127 Previsto 14 Jul-16 Jul 135/140/140 Media de 90 Días 13 Jul 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jul 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 010/012-010/012-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jul a 16 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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