Viendo archivo del miércoles, 5 mayo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 May 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 126 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 May 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
were observed in Regions 603 (S16W90) and 605 (S12W16). Region 605
continues in a slow growth phase and currently exhibits minor
magnetic complexity. No other significant activity was noted.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 605 has potential for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole
stream became geoeffective late in the period. Solar wind speed
increased from near 450 km/s to approximately 580 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. A minor disturbance
associated with a high speed coronal hole stream will likely result
in unsettled to active periods through 6 May. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 7 and 8 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 May a 08 May
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 May 089 Previsto 06 May-08 May 090/095/095 Media de 90 Días 05 May 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 May 006/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 May 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 015/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 May a 08 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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