Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 mayo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 May 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 122 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 May 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There have been several
C-class x-ray events, a C2.8 on 01 May at 0755 UTC, and a C9.5 at
1536 UTC, all from Region 601 (S09W34). This region has grown both
in area and number of spots over the last 24 hours. Region 602
(S13W66) remains steady. Region 603 (S15W37) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. There is an increased chance for an isolated M-class x-ray
event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. A
combination of southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and
elevated solar wind speeds disrupted the Earth's magnetic field for
most of 30 April and into 01 May. A transient passage combined with
a solar sector boundary crossing appear to have influenced the
magnetic field earlier on 30 April.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels for the rest of 01
May. By 02 and 03 May, a high-speed solar wind stream associated
with a coronal hole is expected to intersect the Earth's magnetic
field. Activity should increase to minor storming late on 02 May
and into early 03 May, dropping back down to active levels by 04 May
as the high-speed stream passes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 May a 04 May
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 May 094 Previsto 02 May-04 May 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 01 May 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 May 011/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 May a 04 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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