Viendo archivo del viernes, 28 mayo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 May 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 149 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 May 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S10W44)
produced several impulsive C-class flares, the largest a C4.1 at
28/1011 UTC. Region 618 is stable in size, but has decreased in
magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 618 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Isolated
active conditions are possible late on day three (May 31) as a
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream begins to move into
geoeffective position. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring
ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about 30 May to 2 June 2004.
During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere with
spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma,
magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 May a 31 May
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 May 102 Previsto 29 May-31 May 100/105/105 Media de 90 Días 28 May 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 May 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 May 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 005/012-008/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 May a 31 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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