Viendo archivo del domingo, 2 mayo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 May 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 123 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 May 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There has been a number
of C-class events produced by Region 601 (S10W47), with the largest
being a C8.3 on 02 May at 1115 UTC. There was a weak coronal mass
ejection (CME) produced by yesterday's C9.5, also produced by Region
601, that appears to have an earthward-directed component.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 601 continues to have a slight chance to produce an
M-class x-ray event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar
wind speeds fell to below 400 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic
field is holding steady northward.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for 03 May. A
high-speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole is
likely to graze the Earth's magnetic field. By 04 May, this should
pass, and magnetic activity should return to unsettled levels. With
the onset of the transient associated with the weak CME, activity
should again increase to active levels with periods of minor
storming for 05 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 May a 05 May
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 May 098 Previsto 03 May-05 May 100/100/095 Media de 90 Días 02 May 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 May 008/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 May 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 015/020-012/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 May a 05 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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