Viendo archivo del jueves, 18 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 078 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 574 (S02E43) produced the largest flare of the period, an
M1/Sf occurring at 18/0517Z. Multiple lesser B and C-class flares
occurred in this region today. Sunspot area coverage continues to
show a steady increase. Newly numbered Region 578 (N15E76)
currently shows a single sunspot. Even so, several B and C-class
flares were observed from this region today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 574 continues to be capable of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A brief
active period was observed between 18/0000 and 0300Z at the middle
latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 21 March
may experience isolated active conditions due to the combination of
a solar sector boundary crossing and the potential of a glancing
blow from the C1 flare and related CME from yesterday.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Mar a 21 Mar
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Mar 115 Previsto 19 Mar-21 Mar 120/120/115 Media de 90 Días 18 Mar 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Mar 007/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 006/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Mar a 21 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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