Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 079 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 578
(N15E60) produced an M1/1f flare at 18/2236Z near the east limb.
This region exhibited slight growth since yesterday and produced a
number of minor C-class flares. Region 574 (S04E28) has shown some
decrease in area size and lost the weak delta configuration that
began forming in the intermediate spots yesterday.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity. Region 574
and 578 have the potential for minor M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak coronal hole
may arrive on 20 March or 21 March. No significant activity is
expected from this coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Mar a 22 Mar
| Clase M | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Mar 112 Previsto 20 Mar-22 Mar 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 19 Mar 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Mar 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Mar 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 010/012-010/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Mar a 22 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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