Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 256 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 456 (S07W59)
produce a C2/Sf flare at 13/0742Z. This region has develeoped a
small delta magnetic configuration in the intermediate spots and
continues a steady growth phase. New Region 458 (S08W32) was
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 456 has the potential for C-class
activity and a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The high
speed stream of the past few days has ended with solar wind speeds
back down around 450 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one of the
forecast period. Weak CME effects are possible on day two and day
three with quiet to active levels expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Sep a 16 Sep
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Sep 096 Previsto 14 Sep-16 Sep 100/105/110 Media de 90 Días 13 Sep 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Sep 008/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 010/010-012/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Sep a 16 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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