Viendo archivo del domingo, 17 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 229 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S10W38)
produced a C2 flare at 17/0426Z. Region 431 continues its slow
decay and has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
New Region 436 (N07E69) was numbered today
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with the chance of an isolated M-class event from Region
431.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet early in the day and active late in
the day. At 1340Z, a shock passed the NASA/ACE spacecraft with a
100 km/s increase in solar wind speed to 540 km/s and an increase in
B-total to over 20 nT. The Bz component of the IMF remained
northward during this time, resulting in active conditions on Earth.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one due to residual
effects from the shock. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on
day two and day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Aug a 20 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Aug 119 Previsto 18 Aug-20 Aug 125/130/125 Media de 90 Días 17 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Aug 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Aug a 20 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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