Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 257 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 456(S08W73)
produce a C4/Sf flare at 14/0127Z. This region appears to be in
decay but due to limb proximity analysis is unclear. A
nineteen-degree filament lifted off at approximately 14/1837Z in the
vicinity of N26W14. New Region 459 (S11E38) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to active
levels are possible on day one and day two due expected weak CME
effects. Active to minor storm levels are possible on day three
with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Sep 095 Previsto 15 Sep-17 Sep 095/095/100 Media de 90 Días 14 Sep 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Sep 006/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Sep 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 012/015-015/020-025/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Sep a 17 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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