Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 121 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 349 (S14W06)
produced numerous C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5/Sf
flare at 01/1143Z. This region continues rapid growth and is now
over 1000 millionths area coverage in white light. Increasing
magnetic complexity was seen in the intermediate spots but the
region remains a beta-gamma spot group. Region 344 (N15W54)
continues its gradual decay phase but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. A 16 degree disappearing solar filament
lifted off the disk near N12E48 at 01/1430Z. No CME was observed
with this DSF. One new region was numbered today, Region 352
(S24E43).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 349 is expected to produce C-class flares and
has the potential for M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.
Elevated solar wind speeds continue to be over 600 km/s. Periods of
southward Bz combined with the elevated wind speed has produce minor
storming and one period of major storm levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Elevated solar
wind speed is expected to continue through day one of the period
with active to minor storm levels expected. On day two and day
three, activity should return to quiet to isolated active levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 May a 04 May
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 May 149 Previsto 02 May-04 May 145/140/130 Media de 90 Días 01 May 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 034/040 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 May 035/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 025/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 May a 04 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 55% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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