Viendo archivo del viernes, 4 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 094 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was low to moderate. Along with several
C-class flare events, Region 324 (S08W40) produced a significant
long-duration M1.9 flare at 2019 UTC. Several regions including
324, 321 (N08W68), and 323 (S07W87) continue to show considerable
low-level activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next two days, dropping off to low when Region 324
(S11W40) makes its way off the visible disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at low to active levels with periods
of minor storming due to the continued influence of a high-speed
solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active conditions during the next 24 hours. The waning high-speed
stream will decrease the geomagnetic field to quiet levels with
isolated periods of unsettled on the second and third days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Apr a 07 Apr
| Clase M | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Apr 153 Previsto 05 Apr-07 Apr 155/150/145 Media de 90 Días 04 Apr 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Apr 011/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Apr 024/026 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 015/020-012/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Apr a 07 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 55% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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