Viendo archivo del jueves, 3 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 093 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels. A significant
C-class flare from Region 324 (S11W35) occurred at 1027 UTC. This
region has rapidly increased in both size and complexity over the
last 24 hours. New Regions 329 (N01E18) and 330 (N07E74) were
numbered today. No other significant activity occurred.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 324 (S11W35) and 321 (N08W54) are sufficiently
complex and should continue to be for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels. The high speed stream
which began on 30 March is subsiding, but continued instability in
the interplanetary magnetic field is maintaining our unsettled
activity levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active for the next two days due to the subsiding high speed stream.
By day three, the solar wind will increase again, and combined with
the potential for southward Bz, is likely to cause an increase to
unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storming.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Apr a 06 Apr
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Apr 156 Previsto 04 Apr-06 Apr 155/155/150 Media de 90 Días 03 Apr 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Apr 011/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Apr 015/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 010/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Apr a 06 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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