Viendo archivo del viernes, 2 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 122 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 345
(S17W34) produced a long duration M1/Sf flare at 0308Z. This region
has developed in magnetic complexity and is now a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 349 (S13W21) is still the largest
region on the disk and has remained relatively stable over the past
twenty-four hours. Region 344(N15W67) continues its gradual decay
and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 345 and 349 have the potential for
M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.
Elevated solar wind speed combined with a period of southward Bz
resulted in one period of isolated major storm levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. On day one,
active conditions are expected during local nighttime hours and the
solar wind velocity is expected to gradually decline. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day three as another coronal hole
rotates into a geo-effective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 May a 05 May
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 May 144 Previsto 03 May-05 May 135/130/120 Media de 90 Días 02 May 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 May 029/040 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 May 023/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 015/015-010/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 May a 05 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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