Viendo archivo del martes, 15 abril 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 105 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Apr 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
event was B4 flare at 15/1356Z on the west limb near Region 330
(N09W86). Region 334 (S08E02) produced a couple of minor B-class
events and exhibited a number of point brightenings and plage
fluctuations. The only other significant activity was an eleven
degree disappearing solar filament that lifted off near N21E29.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 330 and 334 have the potential for
C-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar
wind velocity was elevated near 575 km/s and a prolonged period of
southward Bz produced active conditions for most of the day with one
period of isolated minor storm levels. By the end of the day Bz
shifted northward and activity has subsided to unsettled levels.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. A large southern
coronal hole has rotated into a geo-effective position and is
expected to produce active conditions over the next few days. There
is a possibility of isolated minor storm conditions during the
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Apr a 18 Apr
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Apr 101 Previsto 16 Apr-18 Apr 095/090/095 Media de 90 Días 15 Apr 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Apr 013/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Apr 025/023 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 015/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Apr a 18 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 10% |
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