Viendo archivo del miércoles, 19 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 078 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 314 (S13W66)
produced several flares over the past 24 hours, the largest being an
M3/1N at 19/0953 UTC. The delta configuration seems to remain
although the region's sunspots are decaying. Other disk regions were
relatively quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 314 may produce another major flare as it
decays.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The coronal hole
high-speed stream appears to be waning. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 20 March in
response to a CME associated with the 18 March X1/1b flare. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected by the end of the three-day
forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Mar a 22 Mar
| Clase M | 75% | 50% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Mar 108 Previsto 20 Mar-22 Mar 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 19 Mar 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Mar 016/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Mar a 22 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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