Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 febrero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 041 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Feb 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 277 (S19W07) produced
the only C-class event of the period, a C1 flare at 10/0230Z. No
significant activity or changes were observed in the remaining
active regions. Several small, mostly dormant spot groups with
simple magnetic configurations populate the visible disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Very isolated low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with active
periods at all latitudes between 10/0300 - 0900Z. A slightly
elevated solar wind velocity and southward turning in the
interplanetary magnetic field account for the most disturbed
periods. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit once again reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods possible during local nighttime hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Feb a 13 Feb
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Feb 136 Previsto 11 Feb-13 Feb 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 10 Feb 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Feb 011/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 008/012-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Feb a 13 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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