Viendo archivo del martes, 14 enero 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 014 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jan 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 242 has now rotated around the west limb near S07, but continues to be quite active. It was the likely source of several small C-class flares and was responsible for today's largest event, a C6 flare at 14/0636Z. The largest region on the disk is Region 255 (S13W12). This region's close proximity to Region 251 (S14W05) adds complexity, but activity this period was limited to occasional fluctuations in the plage field. A large prominence eruption off the SE limb was observed to begin at around 14/1700Z. New Regions 258 (N07E56) and 259 (N13E72) were numbered today. Limb proximity hinders a thorough analysis, but limb activity was considerable over the past few days in the vicinity of these newly numbered regions.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a slight chance for a small M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at higher latitudes. A period (04-12Z) of mostly southward orientation in the IMF was responsible for the more disturbed periods.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are likely at higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jan a 17 Jan
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Jan 164
  Previsto   15 Jan-17 Jan  160/160/155
  Media de 90 Días        14 Jan 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jan  005/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jan a 17 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa02%02%02%

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