Viendo archivo del martes, 11 febrero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 042 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Feb 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long duration C1 flare and
CME occurred at 10/2124Z. SXI imagery confirmed that the likely
source of this activity was just behind the west limb, probably old
Region 274 (S05, L=225). Region 280 (S06W42) produced a C2 flare at
11/1743Z. No other significant activity or changes were observed in
the remaining small and magnetically simple regions.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Occasional low C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a single active
period at higher latitudes between 11/0000 - 0300Z. Solar
wind conditions, slightly elevated in recent days, have declined to
normal levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit once again reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Feb 135 Previsto 12 Feb-14 Feb 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 11 Feb 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 010/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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