Viendo archivo del viernes, 31 enero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 031 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Jan 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were three C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, the largest of which was a C2 at 0606 UTC.
Solar X-ray images clearly show that the source for all of these
events was a new active region just behind the East limb at about
S15. A 17 degree filament near S11E02 disappeared between 0223 UTC
and 1137 UTC. All of the active regions on the disk were stable and
quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor
storm period at high latitudes. Solar wind data indicate the
presence of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, but there is a chance
for some active periods. Effects from the halo CME of 30 January
are expected to arrive some time around midday tomorrow and should
increase levels to active through the second day. Conditions should
decline to unsettled to slightly active on the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Feb a 03 Feb
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Jan 120 Previsto 01 Feb-03 Feb 125/125/130 Media de 90 Días 31 Jan 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jan 018/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Jan 014/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 010/015-025/025-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Feb a 03 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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