Viendo archivo del jueves, 30 enero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 030 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jan 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The day's most dramatic
event was the disappearance of a large n-s oriented filament from
the north-central disk at approximately 1000 UTC. This event was
seen as a CME further out in the corona, taking on the appearance of
a partial halo. This ejecta has an earthward component, and is
expected to pass on February 2. Otherwise, little of significance
occurred.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
very low to low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly active levels for the past 24
hours. The solar wind radial speed rose to over 500 km/s during the
day, presumably originating from a coronal hole in the western solar
hemisphere. This feature was present last rotation, but did not
affect the magnetosphere to this degree.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to vary generally from unsettled to active levels. The
current high speed stream is likely to fuel another day of active
conditions, calming on February 1. On February 2, effects of the CME
seen near midday today are expected, bringing another episode of
active conditions, with a good chance of episodes of minor storm.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Jan a 02 Feb
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Jan 121 Previsto 31 Jan-02 Feb 125/125/130 Media de 90 Días 30 Jan 157
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jan 009/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Jan 018/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 015/020-010/010-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Jan a 02 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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