Viendo archivo del jueves, 27 febrero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 058 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Feb 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was just one C-class
flare today: a C1 at 0158 UTC that was from Region 288 on the west
limb at N14. Three new regions were assigned today: Region 293
(S21E26), Region 294 (S07E42), and Region 295 (S19E65). All are
simple, small sunspot groups. SXI images from GOES-12 show another
active region behind east limb at about N14.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. The solar sector boundary that began late
yesterday was followed by a co-rotating interaction region and a
high speed coronal hole stream. The CIR portion of the solar wind
flow included some intervals of moderate to strong negative
z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (-10 to -15 nT) and
was associated with about 9 hours of active to minor storm levels.
Conditions declined to unsettled to active during the last 12 hours
of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24-48 hours as the
current high speed coronal hole stream continues. Conditions should
decline to mostly unsettled by the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Feb a 02 Mar
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Feb 118 Previsto 28 Feb-02 Mar 123/125/128 Media de 90 Días 27 Feb 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Feb 012/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Feb 020/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Feb a 02 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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