Viendo archivo del sábado, 11 enero 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jan 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 011 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jan 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 242 (S07W61) produced
several low C-class flares this period. Some new development was
noted in this moderately complex region. More spots have rotated
into view near newly numbered Region 254 (S16E62). Limb proximity
hinders a more thorough analysis, but there may be two groups there.
Small subfaint flares and minor C-class activity was also noted in
Regions 244 (S22W56), 247 (S17E07), and 251 (S14E32).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate models. Regions 242, 247, 251, and 254 all have
potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A weak high speed
coronal hole stream produced unsettled conditions early in the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jan a 14 Jan
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Jan 189 Previsto 12 Jan-14 Jan 190/195/190 Media de 90 Días 11 Jan 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jan 007/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Jan 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jan a 14 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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