Viendo archivo del domingo, 11 agosto 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 223 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Aug 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. The two largest x-ray flares of the period were optically uncorrelated: A C9.5 flare at 11/1147 UTC, and a C7.9 flare at 11/1801 UTC. LASCO imagery revealed no evident CME activity following the first event, and was unavailable for the second event, however neither event was accompanied by any significant CME-related radio emissions. A 19-degree filament disappearance occurred near N28W51 at about 11/0700, close to the western end of a long filament channel that extends to the northeast limb. No CME was evident in available LASCO imagery following this event. Regions 61 (N07W28), 66 (N13E42), and newly numbered 69 (S08E77) were all sources of lesser C-class activity. Region 61 appears to be undergoing an accelerated decay in size and complexity. New Region 69 appears large and complex in white light, but its limb proximity prevents a detailed magnetic analysis. Three other regions were also numbered: 70 (N05W05), 71 (N11E68), and 72 (N18W23). All appear relatively simply structured at present. 10cm flux experienced a rapid rise with the appearance of the new regions.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, but with a fair chance for isolated M-class activity over the next three days, primarily due to new Region 69.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A trend toward elevated solar wind speed and sustained southward Bz appeared to persist for most of the day, and may indicate the early influence of expected high speed stream effects.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Aug a 14 Aug
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 Aug 172
  Previsto   12 Aug-14 Aug  175/180/185
  Media de 90 Días        11 Aug 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 10 Aug  013/016
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 11 Aug  013/018
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Aug a 14 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%35%30%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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